Welcome to 2010!
by David on January 5th, 2010
January 1, 2010 dawned cold and clear in Chicago, the start of a new year and a new decade. Rarely has a year started with more hope that it will be better than its predecessor. One important survey indicated that Americans are more upbeat about the short-term future than they have been for two years. The economy is recovering from the worst of the recession, but there is a big difference between recovering from a cold and recovering from pneumonia – this recovery will be long and uneven. It will be many months before the fear of a serious relapse can be dismissed. This fear may also be prolonged by the opposing trends in the job and housing markets, which are key economic indicators.
In 2009, over four million jobs were lost, on top of over three million lost jobs in 2008. On average, 575,000 American workers filed for unemployment insurance every week last year. However, recent employment data is beginning to show improvement. Only 11,000 jobs were lost in November, and first-time unemployment insurance claims in December were the lowest in more than a year. Still, the economy has to generate 100,000 new jobs each month, just to absorb new entrants to the workforce.
While the employment picture is brightening, housing remains highly problematic. Mortgage delinquency climbed to 9.64% by September 30. The median sales price for an existing home dropped to $172,600, the lowest since 2003, wiping out trillions of dollars of equity. Spending on construction is also down to 2003 levels.
I actually recently sat down to discuss the economic recovery in 2010 with Lisa Leiter at Crain’s Daily Business, which you can view here.
All-in-all, the watchword for 2010 will have to be Patience.
Tags: economic predictors, ShoreBank, triple bottom line, unemployment rate
